Whats happening with the Coronavirus Vaccines?

Today, all eyes are on efforts to develop a treatment to immunize people against Covid-19. And the pace of progress has been impressive. Just a few months after the disease crossed the Rubicon from bats to humans, its genetic code has been sequenced and published, diagnostic tests are available, and vaccine development is well underway. There are now many candidates at various stages in the pipeline.

Experts predict a year or more before we have an approved vaccine. Although that can seem like an eternity to many, it would be the fastest development in history.

There are many obstacles to overcome; starting with safety tests to determine that a vaccine doesn’t make the disease worse. That was a concern with a candidate developed in 2003 against severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), a different coronavirus.

For example, it is currently unclear how many doses will be needed to fight a disease that will have already expanded into most of the human population. The number of people who have developed natural immunity by the time vaccines arrive will determine whether we need millions or billions of doses.

Rapidly producing billions of doses vastly exceeds current vaccine production capacity and would likely require costly repurposing of other facilities, or building even more expensive new manufacturing plants. Yet uncertainty about demand can make it difficult to secure sufficient investment at a fair price per dose.

The vaccine development timeline: The development of vaccines can take years. This is especially true when the vaccines involve new technologies that haven’t been tested for safety or adapted to allow for mass production.

Why does it take so long? First, a vaccine is tested in animals to see if it works and if it’s safe. This testing must follow strict lab guidelines and generally takes three to six months. The manufacturing of vaccines also must follow quality and safety practices.

Next comes testing in humans. Small phase I clinical trials evaluate the safety of the vaccine in humans. During phase II, the formulation and doses of the vaccine are established to prove the vaccine’s effectiveness. Finally, during phase III, the safety and efficacy of a vaccine need to be demonstrated in a larger group of people.

Because of the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine regulators might fast-track some of these steps. But it’s unlikely that a COVID-19 vaccine will become available sooner than six months after clinical trials start. Realistically, a vaccine will take 12 to 18 months or longer to develop and test in human clinical trials. And we don’t know yet whether an effective vaccine is possible for this virus.

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